E-kereskedelem vs. hagyományos eladás: a kereskedelem jövője a 2016-os ünnepi forgalom tükrében

Tartalom:

  • Növekvő eladások, változó szokások
    • 11%-kal magasabb internetes forgalom az USA-ban
    • Amerika: 2,7%-os növekedés a fizikai áruházaknál
  • Az Amazon forgalomrekordja és eszközeinek szárnyalása
    • Hangalapú vásárlások: a jövő zenéje?
    • A „digitális halogatók” aránya: 49,2%
  • Csapások a bevásárlóközpontoknak
    • Macy’s
    • A Sears és a Kmart
    • Bezárási tervek a CVS háza táján
  • Négy terület, melyekre érdemes odafigyelni!
    • A kényelem mindent visz
    • A jó élmény versenyelőny
    • Legyen digitális arzenálod is
    • Pár nap is számít

 

Növekvő eladások, változó szokások

 

Az elmúlt esztendő egyaránt volt a sopánkodás és az ujjongás éve, attól függően, hogy ki melyik oldalon tevékenykedett: egy fizikai boltokban avagy egy webshopban. Az USA-ban az ünnepi időszak összes kiskereskedelmi forgalma meghaladta az 1 billió dollárt, de ez sem volt elég ahhoz, hogy minden kereskedő zsebébe bőven jusson a karácsonyi vásárlási haszonból.

 

A kereskedelemben is bekövetkeznek azok a változások, melyek már megtörténtek a levélküldés, a könyvolvasás és a pénzügyek esetében: a digitalizálás és mobilhasználat minden eddigi elképzelésünket felülmúlja majd, és vagy támogatja a szolgáltatásokat (pl. egy app mutatja az egyenlegedet) vagy megtizedeli azokat (pl. a Google kidob-e a találatok között).

 

A Mastercard SpendingPulse szerint az USA-ban november 1. és december 31. között a kiskereskedelmi forgalom 4%-kal nőtt. Ez kicsit magasabb, mint amire a National Retail Federation (Nemzeti Kiskereskedelmi Szövetség) számított korábbi 3,6%-os prognózisával. Ráadásul a 2015-ös, hasonló időszakra kimutatott 3,2%-os bővülést is túlszárnyalta.

Jó hír, hogy a fizikai áruházak össz-eladásai növekedést mutattak az ünnepi időszakra, rossz hír számura viszont, hogy az internetes kereskedelem szépen elhúzott mellettük a növekedési ráta tekintetében.

A Fortune becslése szerint az ünnepi online forgalom nyolcszor nagyobb bővülést mutatott, mint a hagyományos kereskedelemé.

A fontosabb iparágak általános trendjei növekedésről árulkodnak, de ez nem mindig elég ahhoz, hogy a befektetők vagy kereskedők nyugodtan hátradőlhessenek. A ruházati piaci szereplők például igencsak megküzdöttek a vásárlók kegyeiért, és a szektor mindössze 0,1%-os emelkedést tudott felmutatni. Az elektronikai cikkek terén ez a szám 8,5%-ra rúgott.

A döcögős ruhaeladások szerintünk nyomós okot adnak arra, hogy azt gondoljuk, több fenyegetés is veszélyezteti a hagyományos boltokat és egyre több lehetőség kínálkozik az elektronikai áruk forgalmazása terén.

Mind többen választják a webshopokat és egyre kevesebben a hagyományos üzleteket: mindez alapjaiban felforgatja a kiskereskedelmi szektort, melynek köszönhetően még a legnagyobb márkák fennmaradása sem garantált.

Ezenkívül az ünnepi időszak során olyan költési szokások is megmutatkoztak, melyek egyelőre vegyes képet mutatnak, és több időre lesz szükség, hogy ezekből megalapozott következtetéseket vonhassunk le. Például az online vásárló, és aztán a terméket az áruházban átvevő amerikaiak 64%-a még a fizikai boltban is vett valamit a Hálaadást követő hétvégén.

 

11%-kal magasabb internetes forgalom az USA-ban

 

Az online kereskedelem továbbra is hasított a 2016-os ünnepi vásárlásoknál, több mint 11%-os bővülést produkálva. Ebben az időszakban a teljes ünnepi költés több mint 21%-a realizálódott az interneten keresztül, ez az adat 2015-ben „mindössze” 15,4% volt. Akár a tülekedés elkerülése, akár a ráérősebb vásárlási élmény volt ennek a kiváltó oka, ez a trend egyelőre megállíthatatlannak tűnik.

A kiszállításoknál találkozhatunk a legmeghökkentőbb növekedést mutató adatokkal. A UPS tavaly ősszel 14%-os emelkedést prognosztizált a kiszállítandó csomagok számában, túllépve a 700 milliót! A FedEx 10%-os emelkedésre számított.

Ugyanakkor a visszáruk száma is növekedés mutat, ezek számát január első hetére a UPS 5,8 millióra becsülte.

 

Az Amazon egész egyszerűen tartolt a digitális kereskedelem arénájában.

Megközelítőleg 38%-os piaci részesedést hasított ki az amerikai 2016-os ünnepi időszak online forgalmából, míg a második helyezet Best Buy csupán 4%-ot tudhatott magáénak.

A Target áruházlánc Fekete Péntek-i jó teljesítménye reménnyel töltheti el a kiskereskedők szívét, bár itt is inkább az online eladások mutattak nagyobb lendületet. A Target „10 Days of Deals” akciója a cég történetének legjobb online kereskedelmi napjait produkálta november 22. és december 1. között.

A nagy látogatószám olykor még a Target weboldalának összeomlásához is vezetett. Ráadásul a cég ingyenes karácsonyi kiszállítást is vállalt, amely jól eltalált taktikának bizonyult.

 

2016 ünnepi időszak kereskedelem statisztikák

 

Amerika: 2,7%-os növekedés a fizikai áruházaknál

 

A hagyományos kiskereskedelmi szereplők komoly problémákkal küzdenek az életben maradásért annak ellenére, hogy mostani teljesítményük kiemelkedőnek számított.

 

Példa: A J.C. Penny november-decemberi hagyományos eladásai 0,8%-kal estek, ám online értékesítése két számjegyű emelkedést mutatott.

 

Ha az ünnepi eladások statisztikáit vizsgáljuk, a fizikai láncok novemberben 12%-kal kevesebbet adtak el az előző évhez képest. A decemberi adatok vegyes képet mutatnak: habár a látogatottság 12%-kal alacsonyabb volt, az átlagos tranzakciók értéke 5%-kal emelkedett, így a teljes időszakra vetített növekedés elérte a 2,7%-ot.

Ezzel együtt fontos megjegyezni, hogy a nettó forgalom 10%-kal maradt el a 2015-öshöz képest, és pl. a RetailNext szerint az általános növekedés a karácsonyt közvetlenül megelőző napok megemelkedett, 6,5%-kal magasabb eladásainak köszönhető. A közleményük szerint az átlagos vásárló 11%-kal költött többet az összes csatornán ebben az utolsó hétben.

 

Pozitív példák

Sok nagyáruház szomorú eredményekkel tudott csak előállni.

Voltak azonban, akiknek sikerült szembemenni a trenddel:

A Lululemon áruházaiban nem csökkent a forgalom, a digitális eladások emelkedése pedig 5% környékén mozgott, mellyel a 4. negyedév teljesítménye mintegy 10 millió dollárral haladta meg az előző évi 775 milliós árbevételt.

Az Ollie’s Bargain Outlet jó ünnepi időszakot zárt diszkont áruházaival: 16.3%-os növekedés mutatkozott.

A PVH Corp.-nek az év végén sikerült több bevételre szert tennie, még az áruházaiban is, melyet jórészt a vezető márkáinak (pl. Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Van Heusen) köszönhetett.

A Gap 2015-höz képest 2%-os bevételnövekedést ért el a november-decemberi időszakra. A legalább egy éve nyitva lévő üzletek forgalma (same-store sales) a Gap márkánál 1%-kal, az Old Navy márkánál 12%-kal emelkedett.

Az Urban Outfitters „same-store sales” eredményei 1,5%-os bővülést mutatnak novemberre és decemberre, főleg az Urban Outfitters és Free People brandek húzóerejének köszönhetően.

 

Az elemzők szerint a siker hátterében ezek a tényezők álltak:

  • A munkabérek 2,5%-kal magasabbak 2015-höz képest, és további emelkedés várható az elmúlt évek fizetéseihez mérten.
  • Az összes foglalkoztatottság tovább emelkedik, novemberben a munkanélküliek száma 9 éves minimumra esett az amerikai Munkaügyi Minisztérium statisztikája alapján.
  • Az üzemanyagköltségek továbbra is alacsonyak.
  • A decemberi fogyasztói bizalmi index 2001 augusztusa óta nem járt ennyire magasan.

 

Az Amazon forgalomrekordja és eszközeinek szárnyalása

 

Az Amazon az eddigi legjobb ünnepi időszakot tudhatja maga mögött. Az eredményeket frappánsan megfogalmazott mondatokban tette közzé, mint például:

  • A vásárlók annyi bőröndöt vettek, melyekkel 20 Boeing 747-es repülőgépet lehetne megtölteni.
  • 4K-s tévéből pedig annyit, hogy egymásra tornyozva több mint 9-szer elérné a Mount Everest magasságát.
  • A felhasználók minden 1,5-ik másodpercben vásároltak egy órát az ünnepi időszakban, ez összesen 2,5 millió darabot jelentett.

 

Az óriáscég ‒ hasonlóan az elmúlt évekhez ‒ nem hozott nyilvánosságra konkrét forgalmi adatokat, azonban a vásárlások emelkedése, főleg a növekvő Amazon Prime tagok száma miatt, mindenképpen figyelmet érdemel. Az Institute for Local Self-Reliance (ILSR) tavaly novemberi kimutatásában az szerepel, hogy az amerikai háztartások közel fele Prime-felhasználó.

A Slice Intelligence piaci elemzése szerint az Amazon a 2016-os ünnepi időszakban 38%-os piaci részesedésre tett szert az online szegmensben. Ez szinte ugyanannyi, mint 2015-ben volt (37,9%). Viszont ahhoz, hogy csupán 1%-os piaci részesedés növekedést érjen el, mintegy 200 millió dollárral kell az eladásait növelnie.

 

Hangalapú vásárlások: a jövő zenéje?

 

Az ILSR úgy véli, az Amazon már az ünnepi időszak előtt is durván az amerikai internetes költés csaknem felét zsebelte be, valamint az internetes vásárlási keresések fele is az Amazonon vagy a saját applikációjában kezdődik (de nem feltétlenül ott fejeződik be és konvertálódik).

Ez utóbbi szám valószínűleg ennél is tovább emelkedik, hiszen a vállalat szerint a mobil applikációjának használata mintegy 56%-kal nőtt meg a 2016-os ünnepi időszakban! Tehát a felhasználók egyre több időt töltenek el az Amazon berkein belül, amely még kevesebb lehetőséget tár fel a versenytársak számára ‒ akár online, akár fizikai áruházról legyen szó.

Sőt, ahogy az Amazon személyi asszisztense is egyre nagyobb népszerűségnek örvendenek, a riválisok még inkább a háttérbe szorulnak. Az Alexa névre hallgató segítőtárs közvetlenül az Amazonon fizeti ki és rendeli meg az áhított termékeket, nincs szükség semmiféle közvetítő egységre.

 

A „digitális halogatók” aránya: 49,2%

 

„Az internet hozzászoktatta az embereket ahhoz, hogy az utolsó pillanatig halasszák a dolgokat” ‒ nyilatkozott nemrégiben a Forrester vezető kiskereskedelmi elemzője, Brendan Witcher. És ki más, mint az Amazon ennek a legnagyobb haszonélvezője.

A Slice Intelligence kutatásai azt mutatják, hogy a karácsony előtti hétfőn vásárlók 49,2%-a az Amazont használta. A legtöbb szakértő véleménye szerint ez a népszerűség az óriási választéknak és a garantált kétnapos kiszállításnak tudható be.

Fekete Pénteken „csupán” 25%-os volt az Amazon részesedése az online forgalomból, majd ez az arány folyamatosan emelkedett december 19-éig. Karácsony napján 46,1%-ra emelkedett ‒ ennek okairól nem sokat olvashatunk, ám valószínűsíthető, hogy a háttérben az utolsó pillanatos vásárlások és az új Alexa eszközök próbálgatása áll.

 

Csapások a bevásárlóközpontoknak

 

A bevásárlóközpontok (department stores) éves szinten 165 milliárd dollár forgalmat bonyolítanak az USA-ban, de a bevételek mintegy 3,5%-kal esnek évről évre 2011 óta. Az eladások több mint 51%-a származik ruházati cikkekből, melynek „hagyományos” piaca hanyatlik, és egyre inkább tolódik a webshopok felé.

A 2016-os ünnepi időszakban a bevásárlóközpontok és plázák 4,8%-os bevételveszteséget szenvedtek el.

Tehát változik a plázalátogatók magatartása: új utakat keresnek ahhoz, hogy könnyen és gyorsan megvehessék, amit szeretnének. A Deutsche Bank figyelmeztet rá, hogy amikor egy ruházati cikkeket áruló kereskedő nagy akciókat hirdet, nem biztos, hogy hosszabb távon megéri, hiszen az árverseny egy amúgy is kis haszonnal üzemelő szektorban később komoly veszteségeket okozhat.

 

Áruházbezárások: Az amerikaiak ma már általánosan kevesebbet költenek ruhákra és kiegészítőkre és ennek a visszaesésnek komoly hatása lesz a 2017-es eredményekre. A Morningstar vásárlóérték stratégiai elemzője, RJ Hottovy úgy véli, a piac stabilizálódni fog, mialatt a versenyhelyzet átalakul, ahogy a nagyobb szereplők és más kereskedők is kénytelenek lesznek áruházakat bezárni.

 

Több nagyobb bevásárlóközpont is bezárt az utóbbi években, melyért legtöbb esetben ‒ nem alaptalanul ‒ az e-kereskedelmet okolták. 2017 során ez a folyamat valószínűleg tovább gyorsul. Lássunk néhány érintettet.

 

Macy’s

 

Az ünnepi időszak elmúltával a Macey’s bejelentette, hogy a gyenge teljesítmény miatt több mint 70 boltjukat zárják be, amely 10 ezer elbocsátással jár majd. Ezt a tavalyi közlemény folytatásának is tekinthetjük, melyben elmondták, hogy a jövőben mintegy 100 áruházat zárnak be összesen ‒ vélhetőleg a megerősödött online versenytársak piacnyerésének köszönhetően.

A vállalat hozzátette, hogy az összehasonlítható áruházi eladások 2,1%-ot csökkentek novemberben és decemberben az előző évhez képest. Ezenkívül az egy részvényre jutó nyereség (EPS) értékét is kb. 10%-kal alacsonyabbra jósolták.

 

Jeff Gennette 2017 első negyedévében átveszi az elnök-vezérigazgatói posztot, de jó eséllyel ő sem tudja majd megállítani a lavinát.

 

A Sears és a Kmart

 

Az új év elején több mint 50 Sears és Kmart boltbezárásra számíthatunk, sőt a végkiárusítások már javában zajlanak. 2016-os pénzügyi éve végéig a Sears több mint 200 boltot zár be, így csupán 1500 áruházzal folytatja 2017-ben.

A Sears bejelentette, hogy a legutóbbi negyedéves bevételük 13%-ot esett, míg a veszteségek 454 millió dollárról 746 millióra ugrottak. A több mint egy éve működő áruházak forgalmában 7,4%-os átlagos csökkenés mutatkozott a Sears és a Kmart áruházaknál. Ez már a 20-ik negyedév volt zsinórban, melynél csökkentek a számok.

A Sears Holdings december 29-én 200 millió dolláros hitelt vett fel, hogy működését finanszírozhassa.

 

Bezárási tervek a CVS háza táján

 

A CVS Health továbbra is azon dolgozik, hogy ugyanannyira lehessen integrált egészségügyi szolgáltatásokat nyújtó cég, mint kényelmi bolt (convenience store). Ez az átrendeződés arra kényszeríti a vállalatot, hogy költségeket csökkentsen, ez pedig kb. 70 boltbezárást jelent majd 2017 elején.

A CVS ezen döntését valószínűleg nem befolyásolta az elmúlt ünnepi időszak. Azonban az egészségügyi szolgáltatások és termékek felé történő elmozdulás miatt ‒ tekintve, hogy a kormány jelentős változásokat indukál ebben a szektorban ‒ a cég újragondolja a hagyományos üzleti modellek működését.

Célja, hogy ügyfélorientáltabb kiszolgálási modellt alakítson ki, és az egészségügyi szolgáltatásnyújtást egy kiskereskedelmi platformon valósítsa meg, és ezzel együtt megszüntesse azokat a helyeket, ahol ezt a koncepciót nem tudja maradéktalanul megvalósítani.

 

Merre halad a piac?A forgalom jó része „áttevődik” az online platformokra, egyrészt a bevásárlóközpontok saját webshopjaira, másrészt a versenytársakéira.

Az Amazont itt is kiemelnénk, hiszen nemcsak a nála vásárolt elektronikai cikkek kerültek szép számban a fa alá, hanem a bevásárlóközpontok húzótermékei, a ruhák is.

2017 végére az Amazon lehet az USA legnagyobb divatcikk-kiskereskedője ‒ nem csupán digitális alapon, hanem az összes kiskereskedő között(!) ‒, mintegy 30%-os növekedéssel, elérve a 28 milliárd dolláros árbevételt, állítja a Cowen and Co. Ezzel a mamutcég lefedné a piac 8%-át.

 

Négy terület, melyekre érdemes odafigyelni!

 

A 2016-os ünnepi szezon nagy nyertesei az online kereskedők, illetve azok a többcsatornás értékesítési modellt alkalmazó cégek voltak, amelyek gyorsan tudtak reagálni a piaci változásokra.

A következőkben kitérünk arra a négy szempontra, melyeket a kereskedőknek érdemes szem előtt tartaniuk.

 

A kényelem mindent visz

 

Az Amazon lassan a legnagyobb ruházati kereskedő lesz Amerikában annak ellenére, hogy egy darab próbafülkéje vagy cserepultja (ahol gyorsan kicserélnék neked a nem megfelelő árut) sincs.

 

tips Vásárlói tanulmány:: Habár az Amazon nem rendelkezik ezzel a két „alapvető” ruházatibolt-funkcióval, a megkérdezettek szerint az Amazon kényelmesebb alternatíva, ráadásul az ingyenes 2 napos kiszállítás is nagyon előnyös ‒ tudjuk meg a Cowen & Co. adataiból. A vásárlók szerint az Amazon legpozitívabb tulajdonsága, hogy kifogástalan vevőszolgálatot biztosít, valamint rengeteg vásárlói vélemény található oldalukon a termékekről.

 

Az Amazon egyetlen helyen teszi lehetővé a vásárlást, a keresést és a problémamegoldást is, amelyeket bármilyen számítógépről vagy mobileszközről elérhetsz, és ezzel napjaink egyik legkényelmesebb vásárlási megoldása.

A legnagyobb akciók alkalmával is (pl. Fekete Péntek vagy Cyber Hétfő) pizsamában, sorban állás nélkül shoppingolhatsz.

 

A jó élmény versenyelőny

 

Azok a fizikai áruházak, melyek jól teljesítenek, igyekeznek megkülönböztetni az általuk kínált élményt az online vásárlási élménytől. Azokat a vevőket célozzák meg, akik nem gyorsan akarnak végezni a vásárlással, hanem valószínűleg elvárják, hogy segítsenek nekik a termékek kiválasztásában.

Az udvarias üdvözlésnek és személyes figyelmességnek köszönhetően a kuncsaft különlegesnek érzi magát, és ez a nagy értékű termékek eladásánál fontos szempont lehet.

A Lululemon az ünnepi időszakban elért jelentős forgalombővülését nagyrészt a minőségi, több csatornán végigvitt vásárlói élménynek köszönheti.

A vásárlói klubok és hűségprogramok igen elterjedtek, de csak kevés nyújt valami hasznosat minden vásárlás alkalmával. Az Amazon sikerrel alkalmazza ezt a koncepciót, mivel a Prime-előfizetőknek minden egyes rendelésnél ingyenes kiszállítás jár.

Az áruházakon belüli élmények nem hoznak ilyen jellegű (mérhető) hasznot, de a személyes odafigyelés ‒ segítőkészséggel párosulva ‒ hozzájárulhat ahhoz, hogy a vevő szívesen visszatérjen.

 

Ez még az Y-generációnál is tapasztalható: A legjobb példákat a bankszektorban találjuk. Az Y-generáció kb. 90%-ának van kapcsolata hagyományos pénzügyi intézménnyel. Főleg az ügyfélkiszolgáláson állhat vagy bukhat a kapcsolat sikere.

„Az Y-generáció tagjai jellemzően nem kutatnak az interneten, hogy megtalálják a legjobb ingyenes folyószámlát… Azokat a dolgokat keresik, amelyekkel leginkább azonosulni tudnak” ‒ mondja CarrieAnne Cormier, az Avidia Bank kereskedelmi operációs és stratégiai igazgatóhelyettese.

A bankot főképp az alapján ítélik meg, hogy az képes-e megfelelő kapcsolatot kialakítani velük. De, amint arról az első pontban is írtunk, a könnyen elérhető fizikai hely is fontos a sikerhez. Mindemellett természetesen a digitális szolgáltatásokat is elvárják, és ez máris a következő szempontunkhoz visz.

 

Legyen digitális arzenálod is

 

Ha több helyen vagy, több terméket tudsz eladni. Internet pedig ma már mindenhol van.

És ez bármilyen terméktípusra igaz. A vásárlók már szinte mindenhol elvárják, hogy online tudják megvenni, amire vágynak.

Még azok a csatornák is sokat hozhatnak a konyhára, amelyek fölött nem te rendelkezel. Az Amazonnál például 70%-kal emelkedett a rajtuk keresztül értékesítő partnerek száma (Fulfillment by Amazon szolgáltatás) az ünnepi időszakban. Igen, lepaktáltak az óriással, de biztosak lehettek benne, hogy a termékeik 2 nap alatt a fa alá kerültek. Mindezt pedig bizonyítja, hogy az elmúlt ünnepi időszakban 50%-kal több partner-árucikket szállított ki az Amazon, mint 2015-ben.

 

Pár nap is számít

Sok kereskedő lélegezhetett fel karácsonykor annak köszönhetően, hogy az ünnepi vásárlási szezon most néhány nappal hosszabb volt.

A karácsonyt közvetlenül megelőző hét páratlanul jól muzsikált a legtöbb kategóriában, akár a fizikai, akár az online áruházakat nézzük.

Az ünnepi időszak 8. hetén 16%-os plusz mutatkozott a teljes forgalomban a 2015-ös eredményhez képest. Ez azért figyelemreméltó, mert a 8. hétig még 1%-os elmaradásban voltak a számok.

A december 24-én véget ért héten a játékoknál 26%-os, a ruházatnál 17%-os, a parfümöknél 16%-os, a technikai cikkeknél 11%-os forgalomnövekedés mutatkozott.

Az előző évhez képest a 2016-os ünnepi szezonban kettővel több vásárlási nap volt, ráadásul a hanuka is későbbre esett, így több idő jutott az ajándékok beszerzésére.

„Az előző hetek veszteségeit bőven behozta az utolsó hét fellendült teljesítménye” ‒ nyilatkozott Marshal Cohen, az NPD vezető iparági elemzője.

Az utolsó nagy hullámhegy, a kereskedőktől függetlenül, jórészt a plusz időnek volt köszönhető. Enélkül valószínűleg sokkal szerényebb növekedésnek lettünk volna tanúi. Lehet, hogy mindent egybe vetve a szezonális kereskedelemben a szerencse nem is olyan elhanyagolhtó szempont?…

 

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