A Brexit várható hatása az e-kereskedelemre

A britek népszavazáson döntöttek az Európai Unióból való kilépésről, ezzel még magukat is meglepve, a piacoknak pedig nem kis sokkot okozva.

A Brexit első és legnyilvánvalóbb hatása az angol font megzuhanása volt. A britek pénze hirtelen olyan mélyre zuhant, ahol 30 éve nem járt már az amerikai dollárhoz képest, és az euróval szemben is jelentősen gyengült.

Ez természetesen elsősorban az amerikai, illetve uniós vásárlóknak igen jól jöhet: az angol webáruházakban hirtelen olcsóbban vásárolhatnak termékeket, kihasználhatják a kaotikus pénzügyi helyzetet.

 

A brit webáruházak még jól is járhatnak

 

Sok brit webáruház lehetőséget ad arra, hogy a vásárlók szabadon válasszák meg, milyen pénznemben akarnak fizetni a kiválasztott termékekért, ez pedig egy ilyen helyzetben a tengeren túli vásárlóknak rendkívül előnyös lehet.

Várhatóan a következő hetekben nagy forgalmat bonyolítanak majd külföldre például a ruházati termékeket kínáló áruházak – ugyanakkor az elektronikai termékeknél például nem lesz olyan erős ez a hatás az eltérő adapterek miatt.

Az európai és amerikai vevők tehát jól járnak majd azzal, ha brit webáruházakban vásárolnak – de ez ugyanúgy igaz a brit vásárlókra is. Mivel a font meggyengült a külföldi pénznemekkel szemben, számukra a devizában változatlan árak most valójában jóval drágábbak – tehát minden bizonnyal a hazai, fontban kifizethető webshopok felé irányul majd ennek a forgalomnak egy része.

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Az Egyesült Királyságban egyébként sem elhanyagolható az online kereskedelem szerepe: az összes vásárlás 14,5%-a már online zajlik. A Brexit hatására valószínűleg komolyabban nő majd ez a szám, nem kis mértékben a mobilkereséseknek köszönhetően.

Mindeddig a brit fogyasztók lelkesen vásároltak külföldön, és valószínűtlen, hogy hosszú távon radikális változás következne be ebben a trendben (54% már vásárolt külföldi webshopból valamilyen terméket), a hirtelen fontgyengülést a hazai boltok remek alkalomként élhetik meg.

Az már a webáruházak felelőssége, hogy jól kommunikáljanak a külföldiek felé: sok fogyasztó magától nem ismerné fel a lehetőséget, ezért megérheti akár külön kampányt is alapozni erre, hiszen akár a többszörösére emelheti egy brit webáruház forgalmát a külföldi vevők beáramlása.

 

Felértékelődik a mobiloptimalizáció

 

A mobiltelefonon végrehajtott vásárlások már a teljes e-kereskedelmi forgalom 33 százalékát adják az Egyesült Királyságban: 2015-ben ez már 15 milliárd fontot jelentett. Ennek jelentősége várhatóan az év második felében még tovább növekszik majd.

Mivel a britek várhatóan kevesebbet és olcsóbban vásárolnak majd, a Business2Community szerint várható, hogy megnövekszik a mobilról indított keresések száma, ahogyan próbálják majd a számukra legkedvezőbb ajánlatokat megtalálni. Márpedig a termékkeresést ma már jellemzően okoseszközökről végezzük, s az Egyesült Királyságban még inkább érvényes ez.

A szemfüles webáruházak, amelyek oldalaikat és tartalmaikat mobilra optimalizálják, könnyen szerezhetnek némi extraprofitot ennek a trendnek hála.

 

Nehezebben lesz elérhető a brit piac – az EU-s cégeknek és fogyasztóknak

 

Az Egyesült Királyság egyelőre még nem lépett ki az Unióból, mindössze az erről szóló népszavazást bonyolították le. Ezt követően a brit parlamentnek még törvényt kell alkotnia a kilépésről, majd David Cameron utódjának meg kell kezdenie a kilépésről szóló tárgyalásokat. Ez valószínűleg az ősszel következik majd be, és még innen számítva is legalább két évig tartanak majd a tárgyalások.

Egyelőre tehát nem áll fenn olyan helyzet, hogy a szigetországon kívüli webshopoknak nehezebb lenne szállítaniuk vagy eladniuk a termékeket – két év múlva azonban már egészen máshogy fog kinézni mindez, ahogyan erre az Ecommerce News is kitér elemzésében.

Komolyan megváltozhat a helyzet például az amerikai kereskedők számára, akik jelenleg az EU-n belül bárhová ugyanolyan feltételekkel szállíthatják az áruikat – két év múlva a britekhez már más feltételek lesznek érvényesek. És mivel a világ legerősebb e-kereskedelmi piacáról beszélünk, ez igen jelentős változás lesz.

 

brexit hatások e-kereskedelem

 

A britek több szempontból is kiemelkedőek az e-kereskedelemben. Sjoukje Goldmann, a nemzetközi e-kereskedelem amszterdami kutatója szerint Európa élvonalába tartoznak a nemzetközi szállítást kínáló webáruházak aránya (50-70%) és a határon túlról érkező online vásárlók aránya (30% felett az európai 23,6%-os átlaggal szemben) tekintetében is.

Bármilyen kedvező is jelenleg a kontinensről a briteknél vásárolni, hosszú távon valószínűleg szignifikánsan csökken majd a határon túli vásárlók aránya, és ha a közös piac, az áruk szabad áramlása megszűnik a szigetország és a kontinens között, a nemzetközi szállítás is jelentéktelenebb lehet, hiszen költségesebb lesz.

A legnagyobb dilemma előtt valószínűleg azok a cégek állnak, amelyek eddig az egész Uniót célozták – az Egyesült Királysággal együtt –, és a szigetországban, valamint a kontinensen is működtetnek ellátóközpontokat, raktárakat.

Eddig az áruk szabad mozgása miatt kényelmes helyzetben tudhatták magukat, az Unión belüli terjeszkedésük elé nem igazán gördültek akadályok – de ha az Unió és az Egyesült Királyság a jövőben kölcsönösen megvámolják az árukat, vagy akár csak az egyik irányba működik majd újra a vám, az már komoly gondokat okozhat nekik.

Az online hirdetési piacot nem érinti jelentős mértékben majd a kilépés.

Az L2 tanácsadócég szerint a digitális termékeket, így például az online hirdetéseket, információs termékeket nem érinti majd a kilépés, gyakorlatilag semmilyen szinten, az Európai Unió ugyanis az immateriális javakat nem vámolja meg.

 

Akik buknak: EU-s webáruházak, nagyértékű termékeket árusítók, az EU-ban terjeszkedők

 

Vesztesekből sem lesz hiány a kilépéssel: hosszabb távon valószínűleg többen lesznek, akik rajtavesztenek a Brexiten, mint akik profitálni képesek belőle. Grace Caffyn elemzésében több csoportot is említ, akiknek nehezebbé válik a helyzete.

Nyilvánvaló, hogy azok az EU-s webáruházak, amelyek a brit piacot célozzák termékeikkel, nyilvánvalóan nem fognak jól járni, hiszen a brit vásárlók hazai piacon keresgélnek majd. A helyzetüket tovább nehezíti, hogy termékeik nem csak a font zuhanása miatt lesznek jóval drágábbak.

Hosszú távon várható, hogy a font valamennyire a gazdasági visszaesés ellenére is visszanyeri az értékét, két év múlva azonban az Egyesült Királyság az Unión és annak közös vámhatárain kívül találja majd magát. Ez azt is jelenti, hogy a britek is vámokat vezethetnek be a kontinensről behozott termékekre, ami tovább drágítaná a britek számára a külföldi vásárlást.

Sok webáruház minden bizonnyal árversenybe bonyolódik majd, hogy a spórolni kezdő brit fogyasztókat megfogja, holott ez sohasem jó választás. Jobb esélyük lehet mindazoknak, akik inkább új célpiacokat keresnek, úja online csatornákon próbálják célközönségüket megszólítani vagy éppen termékeiket pozicionálják újra.

Az olyan nagyobb értékű termékek, amelyeket jellemzően hosszú távra vásárolnak meg az emberek, várhatóan szintén kevésbé lesznek majd népszerűek a brit piacon a közeljövőben. Ennek oka egyszerűen az, hogy a kilépés teljességgel váratlanul ért mindenkit: senki sem számított a Brexit győzelmére, éppen ezért az is szinte megjósolhatatlan, milyen következményekkel jár majd mindez a gazdaságra nézve.

A vásárlók tehát ebben a zavaros időszakban, amíg nem rendeződik a font helyzete, amíg senki sem tudja, mennyire érinti majd mindez keményen a gazdaságot és ezzel a fizetéseket és árakat, valószínűleg elhalasztják a hosszú távra szóló, nagyobb beruházással járó termékvásárlásokat.

 

Mit hoz a Brexit? Egyelőre csak találgatások vannak.

A Brexitnek rövid és hosszú távon is lehetnek vesztesei és nyertesei egyaránt. Mivel nem tudjuk, hogy a jövőbeni tárgyalások milyen kimenetelt hoznak, az ez utáni állapotokat legfeljebb találgathatjuk.

A sok pesszimista vélemény között azért szép számmal akadnak optimista nézetek is, melyek szerint a jelenlegi állapot csupán rövid életű lesz, és hosszú távon a piaci szereplők megtalálják a fejlődési, bővülési lehetőségeket, melyek főként majd a más régiókkal történő szabadabb kereskedelmi kapcsolatokban rejlenek. Ezek pedig jótékony hatással lesznek az egész Egyesült Királyság gazdaságára.

Európára nézve egyelőre fogalmunk sincs, mennyi plusz bürokráciával kell majd megküzdeniük a brit piacot célzó európai, illetve az európai piacot célzó brit e-kereskedőknek. Nem tudjuk, lesznek-e vámok, melyik irányba és mekkorák. Hogy milyen új szabályozások születhetnek addig mind a két oldalon, és hogy mennyire marad le a szigetország az európai piacegyesítéstől.

Annyi biztos csak, hogy a népszavazás komolyan felforgathatja a kontinens legjelentősebb e-kereskedelmi piacát is, ezzel az egész Unióban hatással lehet az erőviszonyokra.

Hasznot pedig azok a kereskedők húzhatnak mindebből, akik aktívan követik a fejleményeket, odafigyelnek a legapróbb nemzetközi kereskedelmi és jogi változásokra is, keresik az új lehetőségeket, és ezekhez mérten módosítják folyamatosan a stratégiájukat ahelyett, hogy kivárnának.

 

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